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RTC 2020

Discussion in 'What's Going On' started by RalphW, Sep 18, 2019.

  1. Davo

    Davo Member

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    Yes ive received the same Email off R.T.C. Mays tours are cancelled but what about June July and August tours cos im booked on the tynesider 13th June? does it go on if the goverment decide to change social distancing rules and which buisnesses can slowly start to open if infection and death rates recede, which looks doubtful the way the covid 19 crisis is taking effect, on our nation. The saftey of peoples nations comes 1st and lockdown rules have to remain in place until a vaccine or medication is found to cull covid 19 and not letting this covid 19 wipe scores of us out globally we will all just to live like this way under draconian rules until the light gets closer to us under this dark tunnel, some pastimes hobbies will have to be shelved held back
    in uncertain times i presume no one has experienced on earth like this. Take care out there all nat pres members.
    Davo 56F.
     
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  2. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Well-Known Member

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    That will be because nobody knows what the situation will be in those months and currently no exit strategy has been published so obviously RTC have nothing firm they can say beyond what they currently have.
     
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  3. MellishR

    MellishR Part of the furniture Friend

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    Some organisations have cancelled all events several months ahead, notably all the Edinburgh festivals. Others are cancelling only for a month or two ahead and waiting to see when they will be able to resume operations. Both policies seem reasonable to me.
     
  4. Davo

    Davo Member

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    Tynesider tour on june 13th 2020 now been cancelled for a later date in autumn or offering me a refund or transer of my booking to a tour in late 2020 or any tours in 2021 R.T.C. events calendar according to the email i received off railway touring company no surprise there though due to covid 19 lockdown.
    Davo 56F.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
  5. 30567

    30567 Well-Known Member Friend

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    So Ralph, James, those in the know, was the WCME on 28 Mar planned for number 9 or was it just a rumour which seemed plausible at the time?
     
  6. RalphW

    RalphW Part of the furniture Staff Member Administrator Friend

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    Having not been to Carnforth or being in contact with our TM except regarding cancellations, I've had no contact, so I know nuffink.
     
  7. J Shuttleworth

    J Shuttleworth Well-Known Member

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    It never got beyond a suggestion by RTC - events, rather obviously,overtook any serious discussion.

    JS
     
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  8. Davo

    Davo Member

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    Received a email today off R.T.C. about The wensleydale tour has any other members on nat pres got 1 who was due to go on this tour earlier in spring 28/3/2020 now redated to 27/3/2021 due to R.T.C. /W.C.R.C. taking precaution so its absolutley safe to travel by the time of the new date and travellers are certain they are confident enough to mingle again in groups until this covid 19 pandemic has gone hopefully by then and people should also be immunised by then (myself im very doubtful that both goals will have been achieved globally by then due to this dreaded covid 19) does this affect any later tours on R.T.C. 2020 programme does anyone know on nat pres?
    Davo 56F
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
  9. Oswald T Wistle

    Oswald T Wistle Well-Known Member Friend

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    Just received email from RTC the CME 11 July cancelled. Spare seats are available for transfers to CME 10 Oct. RTC are hoping to run a CME on a corresponding date in 2021, details when available and transfers to this can be arranged then. Or funds can be held on credit for trips in 2020 or 2021.
     
  10. Davo

    Davo Member

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    Hey well we went without mainline steam in 1969 until 4772 broke the ban (if i got my dates right) apart from jan to mid march 2020 could be a very similar outlook like with very few mainline excursions who knows anyhow yet we may have a stroke of luck for autumn and winter 2020.
    Davo 56F
     
  11. 30567

    30567 Well-Known Member Friend

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    FS did seven tours between Sept and Dec 68 and a similar number in 69 according to Six Bells. Looks like there was no steam on the main line between 31/8/69 (FS) and 2/10/71 (6000). But of course there was steam not on the main line then, unlike now.
     
  12. 1020 Shireman

    1020 Shireman Well-Known Member Friend

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    One could get terminally (no pun intended) paranoid about Covid-19 and the likelihood of us ever going out on Steam Hauled Charter or any other trains with minimal risk or social distancing measures having to be in place. The 'science' says Covid-19 isn't just going to peter out and between 40-60% of the population need to have protective immunity before it will be reasonably safe to come out of the water. The well known favourite among railway readers, The Lancet, records this can come either from natural infection or vaccination.

    Basic math isn't encouraging. Take the lower 40% figure. With an estimated population of 67 million in the UK, 26.8 million folk will have to get it or be vaccinated against it for 'herd' immunity to kick in. Current estimations are the rate of infection is 8-9000 a day. Seems a lot, but even at 9000 there will 'only' be 3.29 million folk infected in a year. So without an effective vaccination with a very high take up, postponements to 2027 or 2028 would seem appropriate!!!!! (OK so it's not serious science but it is sort of logical and one has to do something with one's time as the tablets wear off too soon.)
     
  13. Sidmouth

    Sidmouth Part of the furniture Staff Member Moderator

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    so what shall we do ? All sit around at home waiting for old age, mental illness, alchohol , obesity, affect us ?

    as one chairman said to me adapt or die so fair play to any business looking to see how it makes things viable
     
  14. 30567

    30567 Well-Known Member Friend

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    Too pessimistic. Probably around 5 to 8% (3 to 5 million) already.
     
  15. 1020 Shireman

    1020 Shireman Well-Known Member Friend

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    Read the words. Just saying. Much more worried listening to Van-Dam today - every little release of lockdown is a big risk. He didn't answer the important question - How can 8-9000 a day be getting the virus in lockdown? What will happen when more and more people mix? The thoughts of many on the SAGE Committee is cases will rise. hope they're wrong as we're more than p***** off being stuck at home, especially in Wales. All our friends and family live way over 5 miles from us here in deepest darkest rural South East Wales. We'll have to risk fines just to see them. We took the risks before in various flu epidemics when we were younger but we're both 71 now. What we'd risk when we were 40, 50 and even 60 we won't today as the odds build up against us. Hate these times more than I can put into words but there's a big reality check with this damned virus. It's dangerous to us and we want things to change, but safely as we're big supporters of steam hauled tours, steam locomotive groups and preserved railways and want to get out there.
     
  16. Mike Wylie

    Mike Wylie New Member

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    The risk is surely going to have placed on the individual and hopefully we'll see less state influence. Here is all the information, you will now have to decide for yourselves how to behave and what what level of risk you are prepared to live with. I just can't see another way without permanent and long lasting damage being done to the economy.
     
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  17. 30567

    30567 Well-Known Member Friend

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    So the key questions for all sorts of discretionary leisure activities are :

    1. What proportion of the market is in the 'vulnerable' categories?
    2. How will those categories choose to respond?
    3. What can be done to moderate the perceived risks?
    4. Can it be made more attractive to the 'non-vulnerable'?
     
  18. Mike Wylie

    Mike Wylie New Member

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    The market will have to be tested i suppose. If this thing is now going to be with us forever, i guess reasonable practical steps is all that can be done.
     
  19. Oswald T Wistle

    Oswald T Wistle Well-Known Member Friend

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    Well done Graham, I'm glad that someone is looking at the statistics - here is another one.

    During the Saturday Press Briefing, that nice Dr Jenny Harries said that she could allow us "Vulnerables" to venture out "as the risk of contracting coronavirus had fallen to around 1 in 400." To put this another way if I were to go out every day for a year then on only one of those days would I catch coronavirus. So if Jenny can let me know which is "my day" I will stay indoors - July 13th works for me!
     
  20. Big Al

    Big Al Resident of Nat Pres Staff Member Moderator

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    Sorry but that's not how probability and statistics work!! If you spin a normal coin twice then you might expect that it will be heads once but that's not necessarily the case. Every gambling house with roulette wheels hope that their clientele assume that kind of thing.

    I like the joke but seriously, the whole of this business is far more complex. Without local data that we are not being given, because probably nobody knows :rolleyes:, there is no way of working out the real risk. Now apply that to a train load of steam enthusiasts with an average age of 50, say, and work out the risk.

    I'd apply 'Oswald sense' if I were you.
     
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