If you register, you can do a lot more. And become an active part of our growing community. You'll have access to hidden forums, and enjoy the ability of replying and starting conversations.

Recommissioning after Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Heritage Railways & Centres in the UK' started by johnofwessex, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Platform 3

    Platform 3 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2015
    Messages:
    656
    Likes Received:
    832
    Gender:
    Male
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    Well yes you may have a point, but only if (a) a viable vaccine is never discovered and (b) treatment options don't improve. If in 12 months time the chances of a vaccinated individual contracting the condition have been minimised and/or the chances of an un-vaccinated individual dying or suffering significant ill health have reduced then I would suggest that preventing spread at the moment is absolutely vital, and beyond just protecting capacity in the health service, as important as that is.

    Sent from my SM-J330FN using Tapatalk
     
  2. MellishR

    MellishR Part of the furniture Friend

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    5,385
    Likes Received:
    3,070
    That did seem to be the idea at one stage, but if the R value can be kept below 1 and re-introduction by travellers from other countries can be avoided then the virus will die out. That was achieved with one or two earlier viruses before they spread to the whole world, New Zealand has managed it with this one and a few other countries are coming close. But it's a very big "if" for this country.
     
  3. DcB

    DcB New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2018
    Messages:
    436
    Likes Received:
    120
    Location:
    Surrey
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    It's getting a balance.
    The new infection rates at about 1,400 in the UK are higher than France at 400 and Germany at 300.

    If the tracking, more use of facemasks and 14 days isolation works, the R number stays below 1, infection rate and deaths should reduce further.
    The next stage is further restrictions lifted July 4th. Some Conservative MPs are pushing for 2m distancing to be reduced to 1m,
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52861993
    fortunately the review result will be by scientists.
    By then Heratige train operators will know if the travel only if essential advice will be lifted and a limited passenger service allowed, if risk assestments show precations are in place, in the summer trains can be run with all windows open to get good ventalation and potential passengers are willing to take the risk?
    Interesting to read the email from the Chairman, Gavin Johns, to SR Volunteers in the Swanage thread.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2020
  4. Steve

    Steve Part of the furniture Friend

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2006
    Messages:
    10,162
    Likes Received:
    6,422
    Occupation:
    Gentleman of leisure, nowadays
    Location:
    Near Leeds
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    Yes I am an active volunteer
    playing devils advocate, there is and never has been a legal requirement to social distance at 2 metres. It is a government recommendation. The WHO recommends 1 metre. The obligation on the railway or indeed any other business is to control the risk of people being infected by Covid-19. If you carried out your risk assessment and said that you were introducing social distancing at 1 metre, citing WHO guidelines, would that risk assessment be suitable and sufficient in the eyes of the law? I don't know.
     
    Davo and Wenlock like this.
  5. Jamessquared

    Jamessquared Nat Pres stalwart

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2008
    Messages:
    19,662
    Likes Received:
    34,698
    Location:
    215
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    Yes I am an active volunteer
    My gut feeling (I am not a lawyer) is that you would probably have an uphill task trying to demonstrate your risk assessment was adequate if it explicitly went against Government guidelines, even if those guidelines don’t have the force of law.

    That said: I think it is quite likely that the guidelines will be revised to 1m fairly soon - all the political mood music seems to be pointing in that direction.

    Tom
     
    jnc and flying scotsman123 like this.
  6. 35B

    35B Resident of Nat Pres

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2011
    Messages:
    14,441
    Likes Received:
    11,541
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Grantham
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    Indeed; it would be demanding for a small organisation to demonstrate that it's decision to contradict government policy by substituting a different risk assessment was reasonable, and I suspect that long before anything went near a court, the insurers would have their say.
     
  7. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2015
    Messages:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Swanage
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    But that is the trouble with poorly worded legislation. What is the intent meant?
    I suspect no TOC is offering a seated meal service currently, not even sure if any are left that do now in normal times.
    Does to drink mean if you are dehydrated or just thirsty, say a few mouthfuls of water, or sit with it off while you drink a can of beer? Does eating mean a quick snack because you may be diabetic, or just hungry and how much and for how long?
    Maybe the tour companies will have to clarify it?
     
  8. jnc

    jnc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2012
    Messages:
    1,186
    Likes Received:
    1,917
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Western Atlantic
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    The vaccine point goes without saying, but as been pointed out, there's still no AIDS vaccine, so there are no guarantees. AIDS has been 'stopped', in the sense of 'the death toll is dramatically lower', but that's down to i) the development of effective drug treatments, and ii) changes in behaviour to reduce transmission. There are lessons there for considering COVID.

    Other than vaccines, the ways in which things could improve over time are i) development of an effective treatment (drugs; there's a lot of work, and some encouraging signs, but it maybe that's just the 'AZT' stage); ii) development of better care (e.g. I gather respirators are now being used more sparingly - but better care will only reduce the death rate, not remove it); iii) the virus may mutate to be less lethal (which apparently happens). Only the first could really 'stop' COVID.


    Given how transmissible it is, as long as there are people anywhere who have it, countries like NZ will have to remain isolated in the long term if they aren't to eventually succumb. We'll see if people are willing to continue to pay that price. With AIDS, there were behaviour changes which were feasible and effective. With COVID, you can transmit/get it by breathing. One can't stop breathing...

    Noel
     
  9. Platform 3

    Platform 3 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2015
    Messages:
    656
    Likes Received:
    832
    Gender:
    Male
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    You make valid points but, to paraphrase a other member here, this is a somewhat pessimistic perspective. We're already at the stage of increasing knowledge about treating Covid, and unless our acquisition of knowledge stops where we currently are this means that the further into the future we go the less likely a Covid infection is to be a significant risk to health. HIV is the perfect example of this. The progress on Covid is likely to be much faster simply because of the resources being thrown at it.

    Sent from my SM-J330FN using Tapatalk
     
  10. Flying Phil

    Flying Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,741
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Leicestershire
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    Yes I am an active volunteer
    Of course we could very soon just leave it to market forces and offer a choice of :- carriages as normal, carriages with 1m social distancing and carriages with full on 2m/screens/deep cleaning etc. There would be differential pricing but then people have the choice, based upon their own perception and circumstances. Some may not be worried at all but others may not come out of their house.
     
    jnc likes this.
  11. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2015
    Messages:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Swanage
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    Not sure I agree with the HIV comparison. Yes early one there were people who were unlucky in getting contaminated blood, or health workers who became infected. But today it is very much a lifestyle choice, if you are in an at risk group and have unprotected sex you are making a choice. I do not have that same choice out and about, because if others choose not to social distance, (whatever that rule may be at the time) I run the risk of being infected.
     
  12. Big Al

    Big Al Nat Pres stalwart Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    May 30, 2009
    Messages:
    16,263
    Likes Received:
    14,531
    Location:
    1016
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    You are probably right on that. What that will probably do is make it easier for everyone in the leisure business, include heritage railways, to plan what they do under a one metre rather than a two metre regime.

    My hunch is that what it won't do is change the attitude of the public one jot. The decision individuals will make is likely to be the same, whatever. However if the one metre arrangement makes it more workable for the attraction's risk and logistics assessment (for whatever bizarre reason) then at least the attraction will be able to open and then see what happens.
     
    gricerdon, Bluenosejohn, jnc and 5 others like this.
  13. A1X

    A1X Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2011
    Messages:
    894
    Likes Received:
    532
    Occupation:
    Generic IT bod
    Location:
    Chuck Norris' beard
    Out of interest, how much of a game changer would it be if (as the Government keep making noises about) they reduce the 2m rule to 1m? I don't claim to be an expert in pretty much anything, but surely that makes the financial viability of any reopening much better?
     
    Spitfire likes this.
  14. Flying Phil

    Flying Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,741
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Leicestershire
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    Yes I am an active volunteer
    Basically it would be the difference from having 8 people per coach to having 32 people per coach......so a huge difference!
     
    Spitfire and MattA like this.
  15. Greenway

    Greenway Part of the furniture

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2008
    Messages:
    3,542
    Likes Received:
    3,374
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    South Hams
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    It would depend on how comfortable people feel with the reduced distance and those that were not would not want to travel. The shorter distancing, hopefully, will come but I am sure that whilst financial reasons continue push for it, health reasons will still advocate against it.
     
    26D_M likes this.
  16. Big Al

    Big Al Nat Pres stalwart Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    May 30, 2009
    Messages:
    16,263
    Likes Received:
    14,531
    Location:
    1016
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    Short is good. Irrespective of distance the longer you are in proximity to someone else the greater the risk. So a bit of congestion on a platform as you pass folk should be fine. But stuck in the same place in a coach even if its two metres distant is a greater risk. That's why a short spin up the WSR from Minehead to Blue Anchor - about 15 minutes - is good but the whole line is less so. (Just a view as I'm not a medic.)
     
    26D_M likes this.
  17. Chris86

    Chris86 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2011
    Messages:
    776
    Likes Received:
    408
    Occupation:
    Safety, Technical and Offroad Driver Trainer
    Location:
    South Yorkshore
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    Yes, it is about slowing down the spread and keeping the number of folk needing treatment at a level that can be managed- they can't stop it, there is no vaccine and its is very unlikely that there will be one is my general feeling.

    There isn't a vaccine for the common cold, or SARS which is comparable.....and how long have they been trying for those?

    The only strategy is management currently, and this gradual lifting of measures is just a way for them to allow people to get infected in a relatively controlled manner preventing the NHS from becoming overwhelmed in the process.

    My feeling is that the (now reversed) decision to send schools back was to allow a resilient part of the population to contract and develop immunity, then do another chunk for the same and gradually open up to the most vulnerable in the hope that treatment strategies may have developed by then to help manage the symptoms.

    My bigger concern at the moment is actually what would happen were I to be severely injured at work or leisure, rather than contracting the virus.

    Regards

    Chris
     
  18. sycamore

    sycamore New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2009
    Messages:
    534
    Likes Received:
    184
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Guard & Signalman (E&BAR) / Driver (HVMR)
    Location:
    Embsay or Bolton Abbey, sometimes in between...
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    Yes I am an active volunteer
    I've always understood that the words "where possible" have been excessively used in relation to "social distancing"??? - https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-social-distancing-rules/

    Most supermarket isles are less than 3m wide and to pass safely, they'd need to be 4m, allowing for "loading gauge" to stay within the guidelines...

    Will
     
  19. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2015
    Messages:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Swanage
    Heritage Railway Volunteer:
    No I do not currently volunteer
    I guess it comes down to a political/economic risks vs health risks.
    Some interesting stats on distances reported here

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52522460
     
    sycamore likes this.
  20. MellishR

    MellishR Part of the furniture Friend

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    5,385
    Likes Received:
    3,070
    I hope you are wrong because, if you are right, then everyone in the world will be infected sooner or later (apart from those who die of something else in the meantime) and a lot of us will die of it. There is still uncertainty about death rates but it seems to be something around 1% at least, and far higher if you're elderly. So the hope is keeping the R value below one, so that the virus dies out without infecting everyone, and/or better treatments so that even those of us who get seriously ill mostly survive.
     

Share This Page