Fire Risk

Thanks for the update.

Yes, here in Mid Kent we are rapidly moving back into drought conditions.

By the way, when is the 150 demu due, and can a Thomas face be painted on the front without obscuring the driver's view?

Bryan

 

Is there any info on the Fire Risk status for the next few days with regard to the Saphos trips in Southern Scotland and NW England

David

 

Some areas of southern England had significant rain yesterday and last night (despite the BBC insisting that almost everywhere would be dry, even as the heavy and very widespread showers were approaching on the radar!), but the trend has been dry again. With no rain in the forecast for well over another hot week, it looks bad in the south (not that there is much steam activity here anymore anyway!).

 

Yes indeed, but typically here in Mid-Kent, the overnight rainfall radar showed a lovely belt of rain split in two and pass either side of here. I got just under 1 mm in my rain gauge.

Bryan

 

Same here in Hertfordshire, less than 0.5 mm in my rain gauge this morning. Everything is very brown and the ground is like concrete.

 

Swanage did not experience significant rainfall so far as I recall. Lowering dark grey clouds and distant rumbling thunder with occasional short bursts of heavy drops of rain didn't seem to even lay the dust.
Glad I'm not a Farmer. It must be terrible for them at the present time.

 

No the patio only got fully wet for about 30 minutes around 23:00 last evening.
Was the appearance of 257 today planned, due to an issue with the T3, or seen as less of a fire risk?

 

The NVR has announced this weekend’s services will be diesel hauled due to the hot, dry weather.

 

Late to the party this week!

All notified steam movements on Amber until Thursday where we get an England and Wales green, Scotland turning Amber…

The exception is North West staying Red UFN again.

 

Thanks. I think I must have misunderstood - are you saying that, on Thursday (21st August) the amber status will turn green for the whole of England and Wales (except NW England)? If so - why?? How can it be known for certain that there will be widespread rain before then, especially as there is no rain forecast!?

 

It’s not just about rain. It’s also judging things like cloud cover, cooler temps, higher risk movements like steam, etc

 

Sorry, but it is fundamentally about rain (as there is no other way to wet vegetation enough to affect fire risk materially), and there is none forecast over the vast majority of England and Wales for the next ten days or so. There is certainly nothing in the weather forecasts that would prompt a definite change of fire risk status on Thursday, as it is going to continue dry and, if anything, warmer again . Today we had a dull and breezy day in Surrey, but the vegetation remains bone-dry.

 

To put it bluntly there is an awful lot of 'fuel' in them there fields. verges etc

 

And as such you’ve found how a fire risk forecast can change…

Scotland is green for just Thursday, otherwise with exception on NW (still red), everywhere is blanket Amber.

 

That's what I would have expected (or even red almost everywhere), but post 270 said England and Wales would turn green from Thursday, when no rain had been forecast (and still isn't). I imagine the 'Clan Line' Kent circular will suffer.

 

I don’t know how they assess fire risk, is it just on rainfall or do other factors come into play? The crop harvest is now done so no fields of tender dry wheat and barley to to be incinerated.

 

Tangmere came into Hellifield from Carnforth with a 57 minder leading, but departed with just a 47 on the rear of the Dalesman
2 class 57’s ran light back to Carnforth
So is Settle to Carlisle line a different fire risk area to Carnforth?

 

I don't know the fine details but logic tells me that rainfall must surely be 99% of the equation? Lineside vegetation is the focus, so if that is dry from weeks of little or no rain, that won't change unless it rains, no matter whether it's sunny or cloudy. Strong winds simply dry things even more and carry lit material further too. Even in flat calm conditions, bone-dry lineside vegetation is well within the reach of sparks, cinders, etc.

 

Both routes are under the same region, NW.
NW is under Red, meaning diesel assisted steam. The pilot was necessary under the fire risk, and then could be let lose on the charter as the assisting diesel was on the rear.