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Project Wareham

Discussion in 'Heritage Railways & Centres in the UK' started by David R, Jul 31, 2015.

  1. bishdunster

    bishdunster New Member

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    Ah, page 98, doesn't that remind me of a headcode?o_O
     
  2. ghost

    ghost Part of the furniture

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    Or a headache? :)
     
  3. DcB

    DcB Well-Known Member

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    From the magazine the SR ticket sales were 20% down
    Wareham project trial (for 2023) seems to continuing as planned, or at least no announcements of delays or extra fundraising? So far off peak leisure travel on SWR has held up, which may be a good sign.
     
  4. 5914

    5914 New Member

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    This is not a PW specific comment, but may have some implications by highlighting the potential lack of comparability of pre and post-COVID trends and categories.

    Fundamentally, I do wonder how much of the 'leisure' travel is actually 'work' travel that has been displaced from peak times. I know two organisations that I am connected with have, since COVID reduced the number of face-to-face meetings but arranged those that do take place so that those travelling can take advantage of cheaper, off-peak rail fares. This is in part enabled by an increased expectation that people can work away from their desks whilst travelling. Since COVID, I have not had to start from my local station before 9am once for an 'away' meeting - whereas pre-COVID it was the norm to be off on the 7 20 if I had a meeting in London! Travelling back on an evening train from St Pancras the other day, I ended up at a table where all four of the people (previously completely unknown to each other) agreed that this was a trend - they had all started out later that day, had late morning and afternoon meetings and then relaxed before catching the first post-peak train back home.

    More recent, and perhaps more worrying for the rail industry structurally, is that, due to the unpredictability caused by strike days, I have recently been treated to relatively long-distance car travel by two organisations that I travel to visit - and in both cases I was told that it was (a) cheaper than the peak fare in all four cases and (b) in three of the four cases much quicker - with door-to-door travel meaning there was less wasted time (e.g. changing trains) and more continuous time for reading and working whilst travelling. The only exception was travelling to London, where there was a significant buffer built in to travelling to London to allow for bad inbound traffic - but coming home direct was still comparable to the train. In the case of both organisations having someone picked up by a driver is now their default - it provides the benefits of first class business travel at less than the standard class cost and with comparable speed. (As an aside, on each of my four journeys the car was either electric or hybrid. I have not checked, but I suspect this may not have been accidental - as both organisations try to have active ethical policies)

    If my experiences are not unique, then I think there are some significant changes ahead for the railways that the industry has yet to understand. (Perhaps not coincidentally, many of these journeys would previously have used the east coast main line - and LNER was the first TOC to state the trend of more 'leisure' travel post-COVID. I do wonder if they have mistaken off-peak for leisure!
     
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  5. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    It's an interesting question, though my hunch is that the shift is genuine - when I've travelled off peak, the balance has clearly been towards leisure, rather than displaced peak travel
     
  6. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Part of the furniture

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    Some time back our Canadian correspondent was championing the use of Class 230's or similar converted District Line stock.
    I see that Vivarail have said yesterday they will be entering administration. Unsure of the likelihood of them gaining extra funding in the current economic climate.
     
  7. DcB

    DcB Well-Known Member

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    From the Swanage thread
    This was only run during the summer after the 2022 trial was not going ahead, so looks like Go Ahead/More Bus saw a need?
    If the the 2023 DMU trial actually proceeds, perhaps the additional bus services will not be needed in Summer 2023?

    No Wareham project update, but from "Swanning Around" December. https://srstaff.co.uk/swanningaround/swanningdec2422.pdf
    "We are planning services to connect with Wareham", presumably the DMU service?
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2023
  8. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Part of the furniture

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    Well the 30 has run to Weymouth via Lulworth for the past few summers, and the 35 was new this year but was to serve camping and caravan sites beyond Wareham. Neither other than by chance were additional bus services in the absence of a rail link.
    I thought the Steam Railway issue earlier in 2022 where there was an article about the benefit or otherwise of connection to the National Network for heritage lines is was stated, I think by Gavin Johns in the part about the SR, that the ORR wanted a couple of years of DMU operation before considering any other form of traction.
     
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  9. oliversbest

    oliversbest Member

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    Indeed unfortunate...but could it be right idea and wrong time? scenario because the economic situation on all fronts is not promising for rail is it?
    Very interesting article in the RM November on the development and outlook for the ultralight rail vehicle project into which the Government has already sunk 32m gbp.
     
  10. bishdunster

    bishdunster New Member

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    It does make one wonder what effect the proposed £2 single bus journey will have on the service :eek:.
     
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  11. Jamessquared

    Jamessquared Nat Pres stalwart

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    I think that is time-limited (I think initially until 31/03/2023) and likely won't be in effect by time a train service starts.

    Far more relevant though is the free travel for those over state retirement age, which I suspect would kill a substantial amount of the patronage which might otherwise be minded to consider a train service. How can an infrequent rail journey at any realistic level of fares compete with a half-hourly bus on which a substantial number of passengers travel free?

    Tom
     
  12. MellishR

    MellishR Resident of Nat Pres Friend

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    The trains are indeed likely to take very few passengers away from the buses. Less clear is how much custom they will get by replacing car journeys into Swanage and by bringing in extra people from the national rail network who would otherwise not be visiting Swanage at all. The trial service should provide that information, so it does seem in everyone's interests for that to be run. If it proves to be commercially viable, wonderful! If it runs at a loss, all parties (including keyboard warriors on here) will then know that for a fact. It is even conceivable, if unlikely, that the reduction in car traffic and the additional flow of visitors into Swanage will be sufficient to justify a subsidy, if a small one would suffice.
     
  13. oliversbest

    oliversbest Member

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    yes, Not the best circumstances for the trial to operate in and if only a modicum of success is realised it will be up to various levels of Government and the SRC to decide if such a service continues.
    The question being whether the SRC alone can shoulder the cost of operating equipment and maintenance of the ROW
     
  14. 80104

    80104 Member

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    I would like to think that SRC have already carried out some form of data modelling exercise using anticipated costs and a range of load factors so that the net profit / loss for a range of scenarios can be put to Dorset Council prior to embarking upon the trial. If, as some have prophesised a significant loss is forecast, then it would be prudent to have discussed this with DC and sought either their financial support (on a if xxx happens basis) or their agreement to pull the service (on a if yyyy happens basis). It would be fool hardy in the extreme not to have a contingency plan to curtail losses if the early results show that the trial is likely to produce financially ruinous returns though given that many of the costs appear to be fixed what could be saved by ceasing the service once started may be small and thus the financial benefit of ceasing the service may be outweighed by reputational damage etc.

    The 60 day 2017 trial (which was reported to have lost C£70K) demonstrated that a very large part of the traffic travelled down on the first (ex Wareham) and travelled up on the last (ex Swanage).

    SRC must have in place a robust system for collecting passenger data to provide the basis of an analysis of the service. The two key questions of all passengers must be 1. Where have you come from today? e.g. Poole, Bournemouth, Dorchester - the first part of their post code would suffice for this 2. How did you get to Wareham* Station to board the service? e.g. Walked,Cycle, Bus, Car, Taxi, National Rail service. (* obviously passengers may start their journey from other stations and this would need to be accounted for). The other data; number of passengers, type of passenger, type of ticket can be got from the ticket itself. Other questions could be asked (for example purpose of journey, age band of passenger) but given the limited time on train I would venture to suggest that it would be better to have the answers to the two key questions from 90% of the passengers than a full suite of answers from 25% of the passengers.

    The really difficult question(s) to ask (and indeed phrase) is something along the lines of "If the Wareham service was not operating would you have still come to Swanage and if so how would you have travelled to Swanage? This would help ascertain the true passenger generation of the Wareham service.
     
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  15. Daddsie71b

    Daddsie71b Member Friend

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    I was portering at Corfe yesterday, business was, steady. Roads were absolutely rammed going home, lucky they were heading Poole/Bournemouth so I went via Church Knowle back to Weymouth. Radio Solent was reporting delays of up to 25 minutes. So to answer some questions on personal observations, most preferred to drive to Swanage than take the train.
     
  16. Hirn

    Hirn Member

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    Do take your point about getting a good sound sample to get the best understanding from the trial
    Would not being able to get through tickets scannable at any barrier or on any bus help to produce convincing statistics?
    Ideally from any ticket machine on Network Rail as well as any ticket that the Swanage Railway sends out or enables on a smart phone.

    For what its worth I think through ticketing would be a good help within the general built up Bournemouth area say out to Christchurch.
    Through trains would be even better, the junction out fortunately faces the right way.
    And if it is possible to get permission to run beyond the Wareham platforms and into the sidings it would be a great help.
    That the condition in the safety case requiring the level crossing to be closed to enable this should be apparently so set in stone seems to me to be beyond reasonable common sense.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2023
  17. Alan Kebby

    Alan Kebby Well-Known Member

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    The main observation I had from travelling on the trial service (and one I heard echoed by many people), was that it didn’t allow long enough for a proper day out in Swanage and Corfe. Even catching the first train of the day, and returning on the last train, it only gave you about 3 hours in the area. Ok for the one off novelty of taking the train to Swanage from Wareham, but not a viable transport option if you wanted a normal day out in the area.

    Hopefully that will be taken into account in any future trials - an earlier start and later finish. Even if there were the same total number of, or even fewer round trips during the day.
     
  18. 21B

    21B Part of the furniture

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    Perception of value I suppose. I am in my car on my way to Swanage area. In order to take the train, I have to first know this is an option ( and I bet a surprising number of visitors to the area don’t know, no reflection on the SR - the public are often unaware of such railways). Then they have to think, I shall get out of my car, and step away from the flexibility to come and go as I please in order to catch the train and avoid congestion. When the SatNav is indicating 15mins to destination, précis where you want to go in the area, it’s a stretch for most people to do that. Then there is the thought about cost, which will run something like, I am in the car anyway and have already done most of the journey so that cost is sunk. There will be parking, but it is less than the cost of the train and parking.

    It is a complex decision to make on the spur of the moment. I suppose my contention would be that very few journeys on the train are done by people who are truly spur of the moment. Whereas a huge proportion of the car journeys are if not entirely spur of the moment, then certainly not planned much or much in advance. That after all is the luxury of the car - the ability to travel without having to plan much.

    It seems to me that whilst ever this mindset about the use of the car in the Swanage area prevails, the impact of the railway on the traffic situation will be minimal. Most people will continue to take pot luck. The link to Wareham might open up a new market of people that want to travel to Swanage by train throughout. This is perhaps more likely to be new journeys or a replacement of train/bus.

    The only way to shift this car orientation would be to massively reduce parking in Swanage and make sure that everyone knew it was pointless going further than the park and ride…. Think Oxford! For Swanage though this would be a risky stratagem that would probably simple reduce much of the visitor economy, unless the park and ride were very cheap and the parking extensive. Neither seems all that practical.
     
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  19. 21B

    21B Part of the furniture

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    Another component of the perception of value of the park and ride / Wareham service. Not so easy for an HR to deliver either.
     
  20. Jamessquared

    Jamessquared Nat Pres stalwart

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    The other headwind you are fighting is that for a family, going by train requires, say, four tickets; whereas the car is the same price regardless of whether it has one person or four inside.

    So I get to Wareham after 45 minutes drive with the family in the car, and have another fifteen minutes to the beach, probably 20 miles additional round trip which is about £3.50 - £4 of additional petrol. Unless the Wareham train fare is £1 each, it's cheaper staying in the car, not to mention quicker.

    OK, maybe the train companies could do something creative with family fares. "Kids go free" - but that is half your seats not making any fare, and even then mum and dad are still likely to be paying a lot more than they would to drive, on the assumption they have started the journey from somewhere further afield by car.

    If you own a car, you've got to be a pretty hardcore railway enthusiast to even consider it with a family - and it would do us well to remember that readers of a niche railway forum are probably not representative of the population as a whole ...

    Tom
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2023

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