New builds - how many will ever really work?

Haha, your right about SR and HR, i suppose it makes good headlines

 

A slightly different angle. 762 'Lyn' for the Lynton & Barnstaple is a technically very interesting new build -i wonder when it will appear.

 

The Bluebell have published an update on 84030:

http://www.bluebell-railway.co.uk/bluebell/locos/84030/TheBluebellStandard13a.pdf

Tom

 

Reading Heritage Railway mag today. I read the G5 tank group won't be far away from having a completed boiler. Should other groups consider having their boilers constructed before they have a rolling chassis completed? The only reason I ask is how many companies are there that can under take this type of work and considering how long these new builds are taking will these boiler companies still be in existence.

 

Can direct parallels be drawn between a welded boiler, such as the G5's. and those more conventionally constructed?

 

The perception is that the donating public will not take the intention to order a 1/2 Million pound boiler seriously unless a few hundred thou has already been spent on a chassis for it to sit on...

 

I have every confidence in 'The Unknown Warrior' project, and there are several other 'new-build' projects which are progressing well. I should have thought any new project by the A1 Trust stands a very good chance of working if they want to go ahead with, for instance, the P2 'Mikado' project.

 

I see another new group appeared on Facebook about a week ago.
There are very few details on the page and I cannot see if any of the usual suspects are involved, details below are taken directly from their Facebook page. To date they have 21 'likes'

Keith

 

Hats off to the youngsters for their enthusiasm.

I just wish that they'd first aim their enthusiasm towards some current restorations and new builds. They would help the projects, gain the knowledge, skills and support of their older peers and find out the easy way some of the pitfalls and problems associated with large engineering projects.

If they want to get their hands dirty theres Hengist (yes I'm biased!), 82045, two P2 projects and many other newbuild / rebuild / restoration projects on most railways. All of which need active volunteers in everything from sales stands to physical engineering and on to support roles.

Dave

 

Afraid it might be the usual suspects.......

 

When is Lady of Legend expected to be completed? Will it be before or after the County?

 

COPPER PRICES DOWN

Although this subject doesn't apply just to new build steam locomotive projects, it must be pleasing to project treasurers to know that at least something is coming down in price, albeit possibly only temporarily. Aside from the use of copper in fireboxes and for decorating Swindon's finest locomotives, copper is used for lubrication pipe runs and all sorts of other bits and pieces to restore a Barry Wreck or build a brand new locomotive. As usual, China is the key.

From the BBC today:

"It's called Doctor Copper because you are meant to be able to tell the health of the global economy from the way it behaves.
And at the moment copper is looking pretty sick.
The price of the metal has fallen for two weeks in a row, and reached $6,376.25 a tonne, a low last touched in June 2010.
Analysts are blaming the decline, in part, on signs of weakness in the Chinese economy.
On Thursday of last week the latest batch of numbers out of Beijing showed industrial production grew at its slowest pace for more than four years during January and February.
Meanwhile, retail sales and investment were way lower than expected.
So demand has shrunk, and copper prices have been hit.
Stockpiles
Continue reading the main story

But it's not just the Chinese slowdown that has caused the plunge in the price of copper - Chinese businesses have been using the commodity as collateral for their loans.
So with the first ever bond default in China, commodity investors are worried there may be a glut of the metal coming on to the market.
Exactly how much copper is being held for collateral is uncertain.
Yet there are warehouses in Shanghai that are simply stuffed with copper. Bonded copper stocks in China are estimated to be at about 725,000 tonnes.
And in recent months imports have been accelerating.
The country imported a record 536,000 tonnes in January, up 53% year-on-year - the February figure was a little lower, but that's still a great deal of copper at a time when the economy is gearing down.
No-one is certain about how much of this is being used for finance, but estimates vary between 40% and 50%.
China's power grid is expected to grow by 10% and may rescue the copper price
So when solar-equipment maker Chaori Solar defaulted on its loans, questions started to be asked about what would happen to all that collateral if too many other companies defaulted on any copper-backed loans.
The answer is there would be awful lot of people wanting to sell copper.
Overreaction?
Continue reading the main story

Then just to make people more nervous, another Chinese solar-energy company, Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric, saw its bonds suspended on the Shanghai exchange.
It has had two years of losses now, and looks a short step away from default.
On Thursday Chinese Premier Li Keqiang talked about "unavoidable" defaults that lay ahead.
The era of easy state-backed credit is coming to an end, lenders are worried, and copper is paying the price.
Andrew Latto, senior analyst at research group Fat Prophets, says: "The copper price is dictated by China, it has 40% of the copper market.
"And if they are determined to take these steps to allow the market to dictate the level of credit, then there is more scope for a downside, and that's what the market is worried about."
Gayle Berry, director of base metals research at Barclays agrees, but says the markets were overreacting.
"It is something the markets are very scared of," she says, "but they don't really understand the complexities of the way trade is carried out."
She explained that financing takes place in two ways.
Copper is imported using a letter of credit, and then sold straight on to provide access to cash often for investment into real estate.
The second method involves the selling of copper for a fixed period for cash.
She says that the Chaori bond default has little to do with this sort of financing.
She insists that the stockpiles of copper do have an eventual industrial destination - and that is what will determine the price.
"We think prices will improve in the second quarter, which is the traditional time for a pick-up in copper consumption," she says.
"The government has signalled major increases in infrastructure work on the power grid - to increase its size by 10% - and that will provide a huge market for the stocks in Shanghai."

I know that there are different types of copper (I believe that copper with a high arsenic content is used for firebox construction but would welcome confirmation on this) but if the price is dropping at the moment then perhaps its a good time for locomotive projects to get their orders in.

 

That is interesting Kinghambranch.


On a different note, and back to "new builds, how many will ever really work" Our outside cylinder pattern for cylinder no2 will be completed next monday/tuesday and casting will take place in April. The pattern for cylinder 3 will then be made during end of march/april and used once the first one has been successfully cast. So By mid 2014 the Patriot will be a 3 cylinder machine! adding, as kinghambranch has previously said, more meat to the bone!

 

It seems to depend as said before on what is a new build.
Many so called new builds aren't in my opinion as so many parts being used even the boiler are used and parts anything up to 100 years old.
A new build should be just that, a new build with new parts even if copied direct from drawings or used parts to manufacture new not just refurbished, cleaned or even direct fit.
Many of these new builds are therefore non starters and the wasted money would be better invested in true current projects with also a possibility of finish or money in helping to pass a engine for a renewal ten year ticket, many out of ticket engines lay dormant due to no funds to get them back on track.
Stop wasting money and first save what we have and get it running.
So many Heritage Railways look like scrap yards worse than Barry was with no hope of ever getting much of the stock in sidings running again.
Rant over. But".............

 

And what happens if Mr X doesn't want to spend his money on "true current projects" (whatever they are?) or on helping an engine get a new ten year ticket? If he wants to spend his hard earned cash on a new build of an 0-4-0ST from the Gonowhere Quarry Company then surely that is his perogative?

Keith

 

But it's all a bit of a grey area - many "restorations" will have considerable new material (just ask anyone thinking of taking on the last few Barry survivors - not a lot left beyond frames, wheels, cylinders and boiler shells) and equally some "new builds" contain considerable historic material, which is worth preserving in its own right.

As an example: Beachy Head, when finished, will contain a genuine LNER boiler and a genuine LBSCR tender underframe and wheelsets, as well as myriad smaller original items. In most cases (especially the boiler and tender), those would likely have been scrapped if the "new build" project hadn't taken place. So in what sense would spending the resources on, say, a Barry survivor and thereby consigining the Atlantic boiler and tender underframe to the blast furnace have been a better heritage outcome? I'd define the new build project as having been the best chance to "save what we have" (i.e. the boiler etc) as well as creating an interesting and useful prototype.

Tom

 

well i suppose that it depends on what you class as wasted! yes if a new build starts and never progresses then its wasted as it could have gone to a project that needs it. but couldnt that be said about projects all over the country, how many preserved lines start a job and then dont finish it and then start something different, how many loco groups have started fixing a loco (cogan hall comes to mind) an dthen didnt get finished, and now is worse than it was. isnt that also wasted money? And a loco like Betton Grange who plans to restore Cogan Hall once 6880 is complete is doing both! And who is to say that the LMS Patriot project or B17 or Clan etc etc isnt able to do a restoration job on an engine if they want to do a second project. For instance the Lms Patriot project has 1000 members right now and will hopefully have 1500+ by 2017. If we can keep these members donating £10 per month this will cover the cost of the next overhaul and more. So this money could go into building a nice shed where it could accomodate other locos undercover or even aquire them to overhaul under the charity.

 

Interesting thread, as a fundraiser for a Loco that has worked near enough continuously since 1878 (Sir Haydn), you do tend to look at new builds as a distraction from all the locos that may be left to rust away. But Keith is absolutely correct that it is the prerogative of those who are stumping up the cash where they want to put their money. I'd love to donate to locos that mean something to me, but they aren't currently aren't looking for funds, and are unfortunately rusting. I think its much better to have the coffers open for anyone willing to donate, it would give me a sense of pride that I've contributed even though the cause may not be fulfilled for years to come.

It would be nice to think every rusting relic in a siding up and down the country should have a fund open so people can donate to that particular project should they wish to do so, even if its to buy a tarpaulin to protect them from the elements.

The counter argument on new builds is who will pay for overhauls and continual maintenance in the years down the line once the novelty has worn off, time will tell with that.