Main Line Steam - Possible ramifications of the WCRC suspension

I think that the question now must be where does main line steam go from here?

 

Agreed but this assumes spending by the train passengers only; howzabout the spending by many who visit but don't travel ? Admittedly this group cannot be identified as a group hence their spending can't be quantified but the presence of steam locomotives will surely attract a large number of people preferring to photograph rather than travel - or even stay around after travelling to photograph,

If - for example a person pays his £35:00 Jacobean fare then spends £500:00 for a week's accommodation(including meals) and another £100:00 on fuel costs then his spend of £35:00 has a multiplier of 17 for his week's stay. If the 2 daily trains carry 1000 passengers then 1 week's loss of direct income is 1000 x 35 (per day) x 6 day's services = £210,000 x estimated multiplier of 17 = economic loss of £3,570,00:00 per week to the local economy.

My figures may be estimates but I suggest that even if the economic loss is nearer to £1 million per week that is still too much for the local economy to accept without some political pressure being applied. As the economic consequence is a political matter I see no reason why an appeal can't be made to the Scottish Government to assist with finding a solution that sees the Jacobite continue. I agree that the problem lies in Carnforth but the consequences are being felt in Fort William where a political interest exists - especially in a time of elections when political solutions to problems can affect the way that voters respond through the ballot box.

I do not seek the Scottish Government to over-ride Network Rail or its processes but it may be able to exert a different lever to assist in the formulation and exercising of a solution that provides the long-term solution to a long-term problem.

 

What bloomin planet are you on





Flabbergasted likes this

 

Destinations and companies will simply have to diversify, lots of firms close down, even cities lose their appeal at times. Nothing changes things more than a 'loss of trust' and a lot of hard work will be needed to regain that trust.

 

You can't work multipliers out like that! If your putative visitor has one day on a train, one at a whiskey distillery, one at a local nature reserve, one taking a boat trip etc - then you can't say that the entire income for one week is a multiplier on the rail fare. At best, you'd have to divide the entire spend over the whole week and attribute, say, 1/7 of the spend as a multiplier to the rail trip. Otherwise you are saying that the rail trip is having a huge impact on the local economy, but the distillery, nature reserve, boat trip etc contribute nothing beyond their direct income, which is clearly ludicrous.

That figure of £1million per week is spread across the whole country. The local impact on Fort William / Mallaig is only a small proportion of that.

Given what has been stated about the Jacobite's being largely full of coach party traffic, those people will be in the area anyway spending money - all that will happen is that the coach tour operator will have to find some other activity for a day. The likely economic impact will be small, since it would be confined only to those minority of people for whom the rail trip is the be all and end all of their journey and who therefore would not travel. It might make a tipping point difference to the viability of some businesses, but basically no-one is surviving on the income from rail tour passengers alone; they are just part of a much broader mix.

Tom

 

Wince! If I were WCRC I would have my legal team looking at that with a view to court action.

 

Once again in this thread it seems Mr Kerr has allowed journalistic licence to run away with itself.

 

Leave it out.

What would you do in their shoes?.............. pretty much the same methinks!

 

the obvious knock on is that main line steam will become scarcer , assuming that West Coast are unable to continue, then i think you will some tour companies going to the wall, but either way, nothing will be the same, you can not take risks with safety and if WSRC have been lax in that area, its no one elses fault but theres, eventually i think you will see another TOC take on the mantle, should west coast fold, but not for several years

 

WCR has enough on its plate without wasting money on lawyers to look into a perfectly legitimate statement from Pathfinder.

 

AFAIK there are no official figures available for charter train traffic and secondary spend. However, as a comparison, the total spend (not simply fares) on Heritage Railways in 2013 was £106m and the official additional economic spend is £287m/annum. I would suggest that charter train traffic falls short of this. Using the published figure of 2000 charters/annum and say 400 passengers at £75 p.p, that is £60m. (You can substitute your own figures for passengers and fares but I doubt it will be much different.)

 

A fair comment but there does seem a difference of opinion of the income loss and the political dimension which is worth discussing. Whilst many are looking at the "splash" in terms of the WCRC suspension there is a fear that the extent of the "ripples" may be under-estimated and that could be where the long-term damage to trust and customer base may have the greatest test in being rebuilt.

The Fort William point is that the Jacobite has been identified as a major input to the local economy but there are questions asto how "major" is major hence the interest in pursuing it. I accept that some may not be able to differentiate my posts between "journalism" and "personal" but as far as this thread is concerned anything I write about Scotland and Scottish matters is personal - both as a Scot and as a person supportive of the Jacobean when touring in the area. It may not agree with the English mindset but to this Scot - and many others of my ilk - the Scottish Government may have powers that will allow the Jacobite to continue without affecting the on-going negotiations between NR and WCRC hence my E-mail to find out if this is the case. It is not - as I suspect some have judged - a "journalistic ego trip" but a serious question of a Scottish Government relating to Scottish matters.

 

There is a strange mix of banter and a stark realisation that mainline steam as we have known and love it, is at risk, serious risk. Not only NR but now we have the ORR to contend with. And that means trouble.

My brother has just retired after 30 odd years with a company who proclaim "We offer innovative and versatile asset management, engineering design and operational delivery solutions to Network Rail as well as Transport for London, train operating companies and other rail providers. Our rail team comprises highly skilled engineers, inspectors and project managers". This company fell foul of the ORR over something which, compared to the Wootton Bassett incident, was small beer. But my God, did they put them through the ringer with stinging penalties which I am not at liberty to divulge. If we think NR has given WCR a hard time, just wait for the iron men from ORR.

 

Jacobean (ˌdʒækəˈbɪən )
Definitions
adjective

1. (history) characteristic of or relating to James I of England or to the period of his rule (1603–25)
2. of or relating to the style of furniture current at this time, characterized by the use of dark brown carved oak
3. denoting, relating to, or having the style of architecture used in England during this period, characterized by a combination of late Gothic and Palladian motifs

noun

1. any writer or other person who lived in the reign of James I

Can I put you down for Noun No 1 lol




Bonnie prince Charlie likes this

 

Well said young man! If we had taken that attitude, we'd have suspended this thread some time ago and not have benefited from, for example, Wayne's excellent post from a professional railway who knows the know.

 

The issue with 'The Jacobite' of course is that for a lot of business's its that last customer of the day who makes the profit. While losing say 2-3% of your customers may not sound like a lot those can be the ones who make the difference between profit and loss.

 

It didn't. You had more chance of getting run over on the road outside the station.

 

Sorry to be slightly pedantic but she's actually Miss (or Ms) Sturgeon. Her married name, which she chooses not to use, is Murrell.

 

Thanks for the correction - which I had noted after "send"ing the post. I'm sure the First Minister won't hold it against me !