Which railways will still be with us in 10 years?

Well said that man. I've only been to the Middy once, but the welcome my father and I got made me wish I lived a mile up the road! The new shed and other changes will certainly merit a further visit. We might even smuggle an Austerity tank up with us!

 

\/ [-o<

 

I think that the railways that will still be around in 10 years (or more) will be those that:

1. Understand the markets they serve really well and give those markets what they want, at a price they can afford. Typical markets would be:
a. Volunteers: Wanting a friendly welcoming place to enjoy their hobby.
b. Families: Wanting a day or part day out that is interesting and stimulating for the children, is safe and clean and has a decent cup of tea and good toilets.
c. Tourists: Often the same as above, but in addition sometimes just want somewhere out of the wind and rain when the British summer is doing its' stuff.
d. Historically curious: Couples or singles who are not enthusiasts but visit railways in the same sort of way as people visit national trust properties. They want to be taken back in time and to a greater or lesser extent educated. Also want good tea and toilets, and probably a quiet place to sit and watch the world go by.
e. Enthusiasts: I think we have a fair idea what they want!
Not all railways can or should serve all these. They need to figure out which ones they do well and stick to them.

2. Control their costs. This includes things like:
a. Not taking on additional capital projects that won't generate or support the additional revenue needed to maintain them. b. Having the right number of staff. I don't think the number of permanent or seasonal employees is necessarily a good measure of the likely future success or not, on its' own. This number needs to be considered with the number of passengers carried / revenue from operations. An employee costing £40k per year might make it possible to bring in another £150k per year that would not otherwise be possible.
c. Control over the motive power fleet. Long term cost effective deals with locomotive owners, and preferrably owning the locos directly.

3. Innovate new and interesting services and events that generate interest.

4. Simplify. Every business tends to get more and more complicated with time, needing more and more people to support it. Every so often someone needs to take a step back and figure out what is really important, and what needs to be reivised or cut out. Example-the MHR getting out of running the Green Train on the mainline a few years ago because the operation soaked up so much manpower that it got in the way of running the railway.

So here is a list of the ones I reckon will still be there (it isn't exhaustive if it ain't there it just means I know nothing about the line)

SVR - It has size and location on its' side. It will need to be careful not to get too complex and to control costs very carefully.
WSR - It serves a great area, is innovative, and could serve a real transport need in the future. It just needs to watch the capex projects.
NYMR - Location is on its' side. It promotes itself well, but it will need to careful that the Whitby trains don't detract from the railway.
MHR - Capex pretty unlikely (thankfully) as the line is hemmed in on all sides. Getting control over the loco's and otherwise a relatively low cost line except for its' possible achilles heel which is the huge number of bridges (30 I think).
KWVR - Great historic interest. Great location for visitors. Incredible volunteers.
Bluebell - Hmmm. Ought to be around, but everytime I go there I find them to be somewhat unfriendly, and I know I am not alone. I wonder what their repeat customer base is like. I also wonder if they can sustain the extension. I hope they can.
Festiniog / WHR - The WHR has never before made money. This is a massive railway now, and a recession is not really the time to launch. Fingers crossed.
RHDR - If the tourist market contracts much more on the Kent coast will they survive? Probably. I hope so, because it is my favourite railway in the UK.
Dart Valley - Definately. All the things that make the enthusiasts (me too) despair I think pretty much are the things that will ensure it's survival.

Let me just say though that I hope they all survive.

 

dispite what some are saying railways like the GCR, ELR and MHR will survive,

GCR, it has something that makes it stand out from the other lines, double track , and well preserved stations being not far from leicester and loughborough it does have a fair catchment area its a railway that does give the feeling that you are actually going from somewhere to somewhere and they can cater for all tastes

ELR, ive never been there so i cant comment on the facilities , but they are close to manchester so do have a large catchment area

MHR They are with in easy traveling distance from london, and like the GCR you do get the feeling that you are actually on a proper journey Medstead is a gem, as are all the stations , you also have the fact that you are not far from winchester and the south coast

Bluebelle i can hear alarm bells ringing loud and clear, i have visited it a few times and from run down stock, to un helpful staff i have not enjoyed my visits, the Bessermer arms is over priced, compared to the pubs in the nearby villages for food , they need to address their public face , they have pre grouping engines , but dont have the stock to match, an engine in full secr livery on a set of green MK1s just doesnt look right, but if it used the met rake, then at least its more authentic looking

 

Ultimately, it is one of the best known, if not the best known, preserved railway in the country and that coupled with its proximity to london puts it in an extremely strong position. So long as the EG extension is completed without causing any long-term financial or engineering problems, then i think the line will be in a very healthy state for the next few decades.

Assorted liveries/high prices/some unhelpful staff etc are short term issues that can be changed if the will and neccesity is there - the problems that will close railways will be a lack of young volunteers, lack of money, large infrastructure repairs/renewals and the like.

Chris

 

I agree with your last paragraph 100% Chris which as Martin Butler says the Bluebell must address all those problems that you have mentioned.

Best regards
Chris

 

I agree with your last paragraph 100% Chris which as Martin Butler says the Bluebell must address all those problems that you have mentioned.

Best regards
Chris[/quote:1ckd8cpv]

I don't have a problem with the Bluebell being with us in ten years time but I do agree that it needs to address the public face, although I must say that this afternoon everybody I met was cheerful and helpful. Neither do I have a problem with the mixture of liveries although I do have reservations about the 'blood and custard' Mk1s simply because they don't fit with the rest of the stock. Both SECR locos were in traffic this afternoon with 65 being in charge of a super set of mixed SR liveried vehicles; a sight that you just couldn't see anywhere else in the country, no matter what your pre-nationalisation affiliations are. I would far rather see 65 in its Wainright livery than in SR black even if you can argue about the authenticity of the train overall. The whole ensemble just looked wonderful and I should wish it were possible to do the same with the LMS.

I would like to think that railways like the Middleton (there are others) will be with us in ten years, but I just can't see it. I'm sorry that my views have caused irritation and anguish and I really won't mind at all if in ten years time I'm reminded of my mistake.

Regards

 

What is going to sink the Middleton? They are right next to the Leeds/Bradford conurbation, and have already proved their popularity.

They might not feature in the railway magazines very often or attract many mainline photographers with their industrial rolling stock and location, but they seem to be doing pretty well all the same. As do the other "industrial" lines - Tanfield, Embsay etc.

Richard

 

I don't have a problem with the Bluebell being with us in ten years time but I do agree that it needs to address the public face, although I must say that this afternoon everybody I met was cheerful and helpful. Neither do I have a problem with the mixture of liveries although I do have reservations about the 'blood and custard' Mk1s simply because they don't fit with the rest of the stock. Both SECR locos were in traffic this afternoon with 65 being in charge of a super set of mixed SR liveried vehicles; a sight that you just couldn't see anywhere else in the country, no matter what your pre-nationalisation affiliations are. I would far rather see 65 in its Wainright livery than in SR black even if you can argue about the authenticity of the train overall. The whole ensemble just looked wonderful and I should wish it were possible to do the same with the LMS.

I would like to think that railways like the Middleton (there are others) will be with us in ten years, but I just can't see it. I'm sorry that my views have caused irritation and anguish and I really won't mind at all if in ten years time I'm reminded of my mistake.

Regards[/quote:uisinsg4]

I cannot think why anyone should be offended by your views. They are honest and more to the point it is another opinion ,for too many of us, (myself included), think that their opinion is the only one and therefore the right one.

But you still have not answered my previous question as to why you think that the Mid-Hants will not survive when in my opinion Hampshire has as much to offer as Sussex,many more visitor attractions are planned some even this year, and to my knowledge the railway is in a strong financial position due to careful funding and investment.

Best regards
Chris

 

I don't have a problem with the Bluebell being with us in ten years time but I do agree that it needs to address the public face, although I must say that this afternoon everybody I met was cheerful and helpful. Neither do I have a problem with the mixture of liveries although I do have reservations about the 'blood and custard' Mk1s simply because they don't fit with the rest of the stock. Both SECR locos were in traffic this afternoon with 65 being in charge of a super set of mixed SR liveried vehicles; a sight that you just couldn't see anywhere else in the country, no matter what your pre-nationalisation affiliations are. I would far rather see 65 in its Wainright livery than in SR black even if you can argue about the authenticity of the train overall. The whole ensemble just looked wonderful and I should wish it were possible to do the same with the LMS.

I would like to think that railways like the Middleton (there are others) will be with us in ten years, but I just can't see it. I'm sorry that my views have caused irritation and anguish and I really won't mind at all if in ten years time I'm reminded of my mistake.

Regards[/quote:25ysfznk]

I cannot think why anyone should be offended by your views. They are honest and more to the point it is another opinion ,for too many of us, (myself included), think that their opinion is the only one and therefore the right one.

But you still have not answered my previous question as to why you think that the Mid-Hants will not survive when in my opinion Hampshire has as much to offer as Sussex,many more visitor attractions are planned some even this year, and to my knowledge the railway is in a strong financial position due to careful funding and investment.

Best regards
Chris[/quote:25ysfznk]

Sorry I missed your question; quite often I just scan the conversation rather than look at it in detail. Clearly I should have looked more closely.

The criteria I adopted was that a railway had to be located in a tourist area and close to major conurbations (assuming a railway's management had reasonable management skills) to be safe. I feel that being in a tourist area is important because it will pretty well guarantee a constant flow of visitors from spring to autumn as well as the locals and enthusiasts visiting from time to time, and being close to at least one major conurbation is essential because the that will be where most of the volunteers will come from.

Now putting aside the question of the MHR's management, which to an outsider is an unknown but has in the past been seen to be dodgy, the MHR only fulfills one of those criteria, that of being close to at least one major conurbation. It is close to the Portsmouth/Southampton/Reading centres (and closer to north-west London than say the Bluebell) but critically it isn't located in a tourist area.

It was for this last reason that I decided that the MHR was at risk. Note that the phrase I used was 'at risk'. I know I was more severe about the Middleton but I honestly cannot see that railway surviving and unfortunately there are others too.

I feel that the movement needs to come to terms with the regrettable economic and demographic problems it is facing, not least of which will be taking on the historic stock that a closing railway has and distributing amongst the survivors rather than letting it go to the scrapman.

I hope that answers your question,

Regards

 

I am probably repeating some of what I have said before, but I do feel a number of people are overlooking that "small can be beautiful" in respect of survival. A small railway that employs no staff, owns its infrastructure and most of its rolling stock and has no major infrastructure projects can simply "go into hibernation" if the income fall below the level of operating costs (or the costs raise above income, as could be the case with the current coal price).

The larger lines are actually much more at risk due to economic circumstances, as they have a massive fixed costs of "being there", regardless of trains operated. For example, the quite detailed financial model we use on the NYMR to cost out timetable proposals each year, which calculates the cost of fuel and water, loco hire and labour (using average proportions of volunteer input), aiming to cover all costs which would not be incurred if a train did not run, produces a "variable" cost of operations that is between 20% and 25% of the total we actually spend each year. That remaining 75% to 80% includes the costs of goods sold in shops and tea rooms etc. but the majority is the "fixed" cost of workshops, infrastructure and administration. None of the big lines have historically recorded large surpluses - few achieve 6 figures and almost none make a 10% profit on Turnover (and hence a 10% drop in income would produce a loss even in the best cases). Hence, where lines have a large fixed cost base, drops in income or increases in external costs (like fuel) quickly remove any surplus and produce a deficit. For a small line with much less fixed costs (and labour is often the biggest element of fixed costs, so lines that are all volunteer do not have this problem), even large drops in income/increases in costs may be easier to absorb.

Of course, as I have previously said, the need for large expenditure can affect any size of railway, the only difference being the definition of "large". All lines can also be affected by a shortage of what the public principally want - steam - and small lines can certainly be at equal risk. An industrial engine may cost less to overhaul but can pull less and hence earn less and certainly a small outfit could find itself without a steam locos easier as it may only have the one to start with. That said, larger lines have struggled over the years to field a steam service - in part, this is because larger lines probably need multiple locos in traffic.

Ultimately, the main factor about which lines will survive, apart from local issues like a need for heavy expenditure, will be the level of support they receive from their members (both as volunteer and financially) and the wider community - in other words, what happens if a crisis hits. We have seen lines able to call on their supporters and indeed the wider preservation movement when disaster has struck - the Severn Valley flood is the main example, although a couple of winter ago, the Wensleydale had to appeal for an instant cash injection to survive the closed season and I know other lines (including larger ones) have had to make similar appeals in the past.

Almost regardless of the relative size of the problem threatening a line, good membership and wider community support is vital for it to be survived.

 

I was a bit puzzled how this ties up with your list, though. The ELR for example is close to Manchester and within an easy day trip of the whole Lancashire/Yorkshire conurbation, and also the northern end is in an area popular with non-enthusiast day/half day trippers - maybe not those of the seaside persuasion, but more the 'lets go for a drive/walk in the country' types. Scenery's ok on the northern section as well.

The GCR I'm not sure about tourist potential - I don't know the area - but surely its within easy reach of all the east midlands cities - Nottingham, Derby, Coventry etc?

Neither of these two appear to have much close competition either.

Personally, I don't think many operations will go to the wall, but I do think there will be a great deal of scaling back. And those that do go to the wall will either be because of some major expenditure they can't raise funds for or because their future wasn't in their own hands, i.e. dependent on bank loans, council goodwill, etc. etc. .

 

I find it odd that people do not think that the MHR is not in a tourist area. That part of Hampshire is full of other tourist attractions and Alresford alone attract the tourists in (some would say too) great numbers.

 

I think you have possibly forgotten that one end of the MHR has a cross platform link to a direct and not too long rail link to London. Very useful!

 

I think you're being a bit over-generous here, when you state "the feeling that you are actually going from somewhere to somewhere" The station at the south end isn't really anywhere. You can't wander off and enjoy the locality, like you can at say the SVR or the KWVR, and the scenery along the way is a bit nondescript, and flat too, so not much loco action. The CGR's strengths as you say are in the double track, some decent stations and their loco collection (thanks in part to some high profile visitors). So not in a tourist area and no real destination. More of a gricers railway I'd say. If they can pull off the northern link then it would help there long-term prospects, but only if the debt doesn't cripple them. I hope they succeed though.

 

It is too facile to say that because a railway is colse to large population centres it will automatically do well - the GCR has not, the MHR has not and the ELR has not. At least, none of these lines has had passenger figures approaching those of the SVR, WSR or NYMR. There are lots of factors that influence passenger numbers, but overall is the quality of the all round experience counts, so lines that haven't done as well as might be expected of them need to look to their laurels.

 

The CGR's strengths as you say are in the double track, some decent stations and their loco collection (thanks in part to some high profile visitors). So not in a tourist area and no real destination. More of a gricers railway I'd say. If they can pull off the northern link then it would help there long-term prospects, but only if the debt doesn't cripple them. I hope they succeed though.[/quote]

Could not agree more, especially the part about the debt which applies to all preserved Railways.

Regards
Chris

 

I can only agree with Steve's sentiments about the Middleton.

We are attracting a good stable of young, technically gifted volunteers, myself at 24, being one of the elder of the "younger" volunteer corp, and not in that aforementioned gifted catagory! The passion, and will to succeed that many of the younger volunteers have at shown Middleton, coupled with the experience and wisdom of those older than us, can only be good for the future of the railway. We are a small railway when compared to the KWVR or NYMR, and do not have some of the awesome scenery and pleasant landscapes that many other railways have to offer, but we are always welcoming and friendly to those local to us, and to visitors from further afield, and provide youngsters from the area a first glimpse of a working steam locomotive, that often leaves them speechless. This is an occurrence that I'm sure all children, of all generations will continue to share into the future, and parents will continue to take youngsters to heritage lines for years to come. As Steve mentioned, it is young families, and those local to us, that are the mainstay of our visitors.

I for one will continue to offer my services as a footplateman, as well as any other help I can provide in the workshops or other areas of the railway, and I am sure that many other young volunteers down the Middleton will share my thoughts. As long as we continue to stay "in the black" as Steve puts it, and can continue our good work of attracting youngsters to the railway, myself only having become an active member in the past year or so, we will still be here for many years to come.

No offence is meant to anyone, as you can see I am still a new poster so go easy on me!

See you in 10 years chaps!

Alex

 

I don't think many if any lines will close, they are too important for the local economy.
The depression won't last 10 years anyway.

The NNR are investing in the future with the Level crossing next year bringing in trade in low season and lowering costs of bringing in locos as well and broadening the locos they can bring. Also new dining trains have been introduced etc. Its in a tourest area with a good voluenteer base so In ten years I hope to see a strong railway with a mainline connection, a complete Holt station and possibly the vintage train completed. It would be great if Sheringham station had its second platform buildings too.

MNR are losing the diesel image with the N7 visiting in May and April plus the normal visit of 9466 in August and July

 

Very nice too, however on what to do base your staement on that the depression will not last 10 years?, I beg to differ with you on that one.

Reagards
Chris