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Recommissioning after Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Heritage Railways & Centres in the UK' started by johnofwessex, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    That’s fair, but it has to be in the context of society at large reopening. Germany, for a variety of reasons, is doing so significantly earlier than the UK can or will, and with fewer impediments. You only have to look at the debate about schools going back to see how difficult that debate is.

    In a different context, I’m looking at a budget for a volunteer based organisation I’m involved with that looks like being shorn of all event income for the year, resulting in a chunky deficit. That may yet be a worst case, but we’ve got decisions coming up in the next few weeks where our bias is likely to have to be towards avoiding risk as even worse than doing nothing is incurring costs with no return.


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  2. Andy Williams

    Andy Williams Member

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    Re-starting is not the real problem. The main issue is how to service the existing overheads with a vastly reduced turnover. Perhaps many heritage railways will have to turn the clock back to the time when there were much fewer paid staff, and much greater volunteer input into all aspects of running and maintaining the railway. The boards of directors will have the unenviable task of trying to balance the books. Some very tough decisions will have to made in the short term.

    Andy
     
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  3. Andy Williams

    Andy Williams Member

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    The Harzquerbahn has re-opened, but under fairly strict rules. Face masks are compulsory, with a minimum social distance of 1.5 metres between passengers and/or staff. Contactless payment only and hand sanitation measures to be observed. Anyone not complying will be refused travel.

    Andy
     
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  4. lostlogin

    lostlogin Member

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    Turning the clock back is fine but public expectations and operating requirements have changed since the early days. If you go back to the very early days of preservation the TR appeared to operate with purely a guard, driver and fireman. Their was no requirement for a controller etc. Passengers did not expect there to be toilets, cafes, gift shops and where happy to squashed together like sardines. I am sure rolling stock and loco's ran in a conditions that would not be acceptable these days and certainly the track would be condemned. Running seasons where much shorter in 1960 the TR only operated for a little over 4 months. Apart from the summer school holidays it did not run Sundays, only one train on a Saturday and two weekdays and even from its earliest days it had two paid staff who could act as guard and loco crew if required.

    To run a café these days you have to meet food hygiene regulations, they where probably unheard of then. There is now loads of paperwork to complete and report to be done. You used to just prep an engine now you have a form to complete to evidence that you have done all the checks while pressing. There are minimum track inspection requirements where as in the past you probably relied to an extent on reports from train crew.

    The lines that mainly rely on just volunteers at present tend to run a much more limited service. We could go back to that but would it provide the income that railways require to cover the costs that heritage railways incur these days. I understand the TR with all but 3 staff furloughed basically needs £25k a month to stand still, I presume that includes prorated fixed costs such as insurance, rates etc which would equate to over 2,000 passengers a month on the basis that a reasonable percentage would not be paying full adult fare.

    Turning the clock back may reduce the size of the hole but the requirements of operating a heritage railway these day make it a very expensive business even without staff costs.
     
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  5. Sidmouth

    Sidmouth Resident of Nat Pres Staff Member Moderator

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    As of 31st July , Furlough contributions reduce , October they cease . I already know furloughed operational staff on preserved railways looking for other jobs and the longer they are off , the greater the risk they will move on . come 1st November , what are railways going to do ? make them all redundant and lose all the knowledge and experience ? The overheads are not going away and need to be covered The volunteer base will adapt to a life without trains . motivation to get up at 5am in the rain to light up will rapidly diminish

    You assume passengers expect all the same things as before , the government assumed we wouldn't accept a lockdown, the public told the government to put them in lockdown . You would have never expected people to queue to get into a supermarket but they do so with good grace . It cannot be beyond the intelligence of those in the movement to come up with a way of working . National Trust is looking at pre booking to manage numbers , Railways can do the same , allocated seats creates the spacing , I'd wear a mask for a chance to sit behind a manor climbing to Eardington summit . Cafe's can sell from hatches , with distanced queueing , Why not sell branded masks for those without them ?
     
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  6. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    All true, but in different models. Supermarket shopping is a necessity, and they can impose requirements to enter the store in the knowledge that shoppers have little choice; a high proportion of NT visitors are members so cost is not a factor.

    Thinking of preserved railways, there’s surely a really difficult financial trade off there. If capacity is restricted to a fraction of the possible load, what does that mean for fares? If permitted loadings are an optimistic 50% of capacity, can a railway break even on those loadings for the direct cost of operation? If not, will enough customers stand paying increased fares at present? Will secondary spend stand up and pay for stock and wages? Because, and I’m sure I’m over simplifying, if the numbers are wrong, the consequence will be that the railway is paying out cash for the privilege of operating.

    There may be justification for doing so, for some of the reasons you give, or simply to retain competencies, but for operation to add to the financial burden afflicting a railway is a brave call for that railway to make?


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  7. Mike S

    Mike S New Member

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    Martin, I totally agree with you.

    Need to be looking at what we can do and not just admitting defeat. You raise many valid points.

    If after months off some railways think that every volunteer is going to come rushing back, even covering roles once done by paid staff, I have a feeling they sadly will be somewhat mistaken. Golf is back on, 'Fred' might decide that spending Saturday's on the golf course instead of shoveling out a pit seems more enjoyable, that risk goes up and up the longer volunteers are not allowed near 'their' railway and other leisure activities get going.

    A common line seems to be 'our volunteers are old and won't want to be on the railway' Quite understably there will be many who feel they don't want to volunteer, volunteer being the key word here, nobody is being forced... That is very much understandable, but it doesn't mean that nobody is prepared to volunteer or that all railway volunteers are old either.... A simple volunteer survey to see who might be willing and who isn't would atleast give an idea what level of service, if any, is possible, but if you don't bother to ask you will never know....

    Mike
     
  8. toplight

    toplight Well-Known Member

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    I think it is fairly inevitable that many railways will have to lay off large numbers of paid staff as they wont have sufficient money to cover their wages. With workshop staff they may be able to work on contract stuff belonging to other organisations so their wages are charged to an outside owner. Unlike other business, railways are in a fortunate position that they can use volunteers to try and cover the lost roles and laid off staff may continue as part time volunteers anyway if they see steam as their hobby, so keep associated with the railway.

    Right across society we are going to have to just go back to normal and accept Covid as a risk, What happens if no vaccine is developed and in say 6 to 12 months there are still a few hundred deaths a day. It could even go up in winter. Are we going to keep locked down forever ? No we will just accept it as a risk, just like we do when we drive down the motorway and see a bad accident. It doesn't mean we then stop driving because it is too risky.

    The whole Covid thing has been overblown in my opinion. Only 0.27% of the British population have ever had it and many of those will have already recovered. (ie one in every 400 people). I don't personally know anyone who has had it and when I go out I don't see anyone who is sick at all. Only in hospitals or care homes is there any real risk of getting it. The nightingale hospitals are unused.

    The media and government have created this hysteria that if you even step outside your front door you are practically walking into a Chernobyl. I wear a mask for example when I go in the supermarket, but non of the staff do who are there every day and they aren't dropping like flies, they are still there week after week.

    The real crisis for many will be the economic crisis, it has caused.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
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  9. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    Without comment on the proportionality of the reaction to Covid, I’d be very cautious about the statistics you’re quoting as they are a definite outlier against other estimates of prevalence. And while you may distrust the “MSM”, the accounts of community transmission and severe consequences even for “low risk” patients are sufficiently real that they need to be treated seriously - as were the full wards of Covid patients.

    As for the consequences on preserved railways, your conclusions rely on volunteer based organisations having sufficient volunteers willing and able to volunteer to not just meet normal requirements but also replace employed staff. I know from my own experience (non preservation) that this is a brave assumption at the best of times, and possibly heroic just now.


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  10. 30854

    30854 Resident of Nat Pres

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    Do I detect a slight 'in the sense of Sir Humphrey Appleby style definitions' there?
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
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  11. Guitar

    Guitar New Member

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    People pay £200 a ticket for an afternoon jaunt up the main line (including myself). Rail enthusiasts also regularly raise millions of pounds to build new loco's and extensions. As hobbies go there is none I can think of that raise that amount of money with reasonable regularity.
     
  12. misspentyouth62

    misspentyouth62 Well-Known Member

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    Until you have family who lose their lives before their time. Two so far for me and two too many.
    I say to those who are eager to get back to normal and rebuild the economy as we all desperately want. Write down a couple of your relative's names that you can agree can go before their time so that you can get on with your life. Then let us all know what they say when you've told them. :)
     
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  13. johnofwessex

    johnofwessex Resident of Nat Pres

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    But, like me you live in the South West which is one of the least affected regions so far
     
  14. Andy Williams

    Andy Williams Member

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    I was never suggesting that we should turn back the clock in terms of safe operational requirements, but merely stating the reality of heritage railway companies having to contend with the loss of perhaps 50% of their income for an extended period. Those that have high wage bills will face the stark choice of either making people redundant, or risking insolvency. It is a given that in order to survive they will have to maximise the input from unpaid volunteer staff. Many lines will have to readjust to a simpler, more cost-effective operation if they are to make it through this period of uncertainty.

    Andy
     
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  15. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    Some do - for how many charters a week? How much room for growth is there in that market - and how much of it is transferable to the many heritage railways?

    I know that if I spent quarter of that on a day out on a railway, I'd be in serious negotiations at home
     
  16. LMarsh1987

    LMarsh1987 Part of the furniture Friend

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    I'd be prepared to spend 50.00 on a return ticket from Kiddy to Bridgnorth as possibly would a few others but I doubt your traditional family day trippers wouldn't. I actually think heritage railways have a better chance of returning than mainline steam charters, so I would happily change my preference of where I get my steam fix from whether at the lineside or sat onboard partially covered up !
     
  17. Steve

    Steve Resident of Nat Pres Friend

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    Middleton has indeed carried out a survey of its volunteers in an attempt to get an idea of what is likely to happen. At the moment, not everyone has responded as it only went out last week but, of those that have, 80% said they would return to work as soon as the button was pressed. The other 20% were more cautious and would come back when they considered it safe. None of those that replied said that they had no plans to return. Age doesn't seem to be a factor affecting the decision. Whether those that haven't yet replied are more likely to be ones that won't come back, I don't know but I do know that some of the nil replies are people who are still active doing security checks and other behind the scenes work.
     
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  18. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Part of the furniture

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    They do, but a very large proportion of repeat itenary railtour passengers are non enthusiasts. My guess for enthusiasts would be Dining 10%, First 20-30% Standard 50% (on a good day). With a one off tour (new loco or route) then you will get a high proportion of enthusiasts
     
  19. Gladiator 5076

    Gladiator 5076 Part of the furniture

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    Although I only have a small sample from friends and our own experience to back this up, but it may also depend on the percentage of over 70 volunteers. If a volunteer is in the categories that need shielding or the new "clinically vulnerable" then they have probably not been going out for exercise in lockdown, and still should not be doing now. We went into lockdown a week before the governments date (due to my wife's health issues) and it will be July at least before she (hence both of us) should be going out really. Although I have done a little weeding in the garden we tried some more strenuous gardening on Sunday. We were both shattered after less than an hour and by evening I felt worse than a day as a steward on a CME and that for me is normally about 20 hours bed to bed if it runs to time. We have also become used to long lay ins in bed and not doing much the rest of the day. Some may decide this is their new normal, or just find it all too tiring upon return.
     
  20. jnc

    jnc Well-Known Member

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    Unless a very effective vaccine can be produced quickly - and the chances of that are low - probably mostly everyone is going to get COVID sooner or later - it's a very communicable disease, and it's already fairly widespread. People seem to be forgetting that the point of the lockdown was not to stop the spread of COVID (that's probably impossible now), but to slow the spread, to prevent a big spike that would overload medical facilities.

    This column takes a broader look at the overall picture (some of which I have alluded to before), such as:

    "We must not forget that total lockdown — not the virus — is generating catastrophic harms. Restricting other medical care and instilling fear in the public is creating a massive health disaster … Half of urgent-care patients are not seeking medical attention; two-thirds of physical therapy is not being administered. Transplants from living donors are down almost 85 percent. Emergency stroke evaluations are down 40 percent. And that doesn’t include the two-thirds to three-fourths of people who are skipping cancer screenings and the more than half of children who are failing to receive vaccinations, all pointing to a massive future health disaster."

    Noel
     
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