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Recommissioning after Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Heritage Railways & Centres in the UK' started by johnofwessex, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Jamessquared

    Jamessquared Nat Pres stalwart

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    I’m not sure I follow the second part of that - running a diesel potentially saves a maximum of one person needed to run the service, and even then only if the SMS allows single manning. You still need just as many people elsewhere, ie guard, TTI, signalmen, platform staff, booking office etc.

    (I’m also not convinced that diesels are anything like the cost saving their proponents believe - if you run a six coach train behind a diesel, or behind a steam loco, the infrastructure maintenance, carriage maintenance, fixed overheads such as back office staff, marketing spend etc) are all unchanged. Diesels also still have maintenance costs. There is very little that actually works out significantly cheaper within the “whole train” cost: fuel for steam or diesel is a fairly insignificant part of the whole cost of running a train.

    Tom
     
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  2. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    Controls are already relaxed enough to permit that working given the necessity of working in proximity - the issue is with the nature of the business in the first place. I think that the issue will much more be the willingness and ability of volunteers to work in this environment given their age, state of health and appetite for risk.
     
  3. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    The question there is whether you look at fully loaded costs, or just the direct marginal costs. In this period, I'd suggest that the focus should be on direct costs, on the basis that the other costs of keeping the railway open remain and that the primary objective must be to generate cash to staunch the present net outflow. Diesel operation, particularly on lines that can sell themselves for scenery, may well be a way of helping to minimise that direct cost, as well as possibly acting as a throttle on the demand compared with advertising steam.
     
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  4. andrewtoplis

    andrewtoplis Well-Known Member

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    That could go either way though - we know the substantial majority would not turn up for a diesel service, so might push it into being unviable even at the slightly lower cost. Insisting on pre-booking with a maximum number on site would seem a better way of managing it?
     
  5. 35B

    35B Nat Pres stalwart

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    Quite possibly.
     
  6. 30854

    30854 Resident of Nat Pres

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    Although, to a large extent I'd agree, my post was playing 'devil's advocate' and I was thinking more of the current constraints on volunteer numbers, reflected in prep and disposal as much as in actual running. Hopefully, some better scenario will emerge, but having a 'plan B' under the circumstances we face seems prudent.

    After months of lockdown, throngs of happy punters are, of course, what we'd all like to see ... coping with high numbers may, however, prove problematic, as much at stations, eateries, shops and car parks as on the trains themselves. From the point of view of safety, a constant steady stream of less passengers per train utilising more frequent services, seems preferable, though I fully accept that the economics of such operation is another matter entirely.

    Recognising that timetabling is a balancing act at the best of times, I'm forced to suggest that, however we may feel about it, the current situation is, much more likely than not, to dictate certain unavoidable changes to more familiar considerations.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
  7. Chris86

    Chris86 Well-Known Member

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    On the flip side,

    there are likely quite a number of people in my position that are going to be unable to go back to doing real paid work for some time- Much of my work is one-to-one training in vehicles or delivering confined space rescue training.

    Until this begins again I have spare time, so would be happy to try and help with getting a railway (or indeed railways) operational again- and as part of the risk assessment for staffing I would not be considered in the At-Risk bracket.

    I have noticed a few comments regarding vaccination- my feeling is that any expectation of a vaccine is pretty unrealistic, we don't have a vaccine for the SARS or the common cold which are both closely related.

    Regards

    Chris
     
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  8. Steve

    Steve Resident of Nat Pres Friend

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    I'm obviously more convinced on your latter comment than you are. If we look at what we have in terms of costs, there are:
    1. Fixed costs. They are there whether we run trains, or not.
    2. Cost of operating. If we run a train service, there is a cost, whether it is staffing, wear and tear on the track, coach maintenance or a host of other associated things. These don't change whether it is steam or diesel. They also don't really change whether the trains are full or empty.
    3. Cost of locomotive fuel and maintenance. This is where the obvious real difference comes in. The cost of fuel, oil water and maintenance for a steam locomotive is significantly higher than that for a diesel.
    In terms of the overall cost of operating the railway, 1 & 2 are definitely more significant than 3 so the whole train cost does not change significantly whatever type of loco you use but if you look at the marginal cost of operating that train, it is significant in isolation and that is all that you can really consider. It then comes down to the economics of steam v diesel. Does the (expected) additional income from operating a steam locomotive exceed the cost of operating a diesel locomotive. In most circumstances it usually will but if your passenger numbers are low, it won't. Your Business plan will take account of all of the above, and much more but the economic cost of operating a particular train is dependent on (3) and income from that train, only.
     
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  9. Andy Williams

    Andy Williams Member

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    Steve, there is one other factor to be considered, which is whether or not the locomotive is subject to a daily hire fee or mileage payment. In some cases, where a particular railway owns at least a proportion of its own locomotives, it will cost them a lot less in the short term to use their own motive power rather than paying out hire charges. In some cases the hire charges for privately-owned diesel locos are not much less than for the equivalent-sized steam loco.

    Andy
     
  10. johnofwessex

    johnofwessex Resident of Nat Pres

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    The obvious risk that running a diesel removes, not that I disagree with what others have said is that there is a lot less work in terms of preparation & disposal and with it the potential for breaching the 'Distancing' rules
     
  11. daveannjon

    daveannjon Well-Known Member

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  12. Jamessquared

    Jamessquared Nat Pres stalwart

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    I get the point, though you can't defer the costs in (2) for ever. For example, if you have mileage-based costs for maintenance of carriages, then they will have to be borne regardless of traction (or indeed load). On the other hand, some things are costing you money even if you don't run trains: depending a bit how you account for things, but if you overhauled a steam loco, you might amortise that cost over say ten years, and that money is leaching away all the time it doesn't run; so whatever fraction that contributes to the running costs is there regardless of whether you steam the loco or not.

    I guess financially it comes down to cashflow: if passenger numbers are light, running a diesel may have some impact on cashflow by virtue of needing less in the daily traction costs - assuming of course you have a diesel to run! Obviously also depends how you account for your loco costs, i.e. daily hire fee or use after a restoration that is already paid.

    On the first point, running a diesel doesn't actually save much in volunteer numbers for P&D. Certainly saves time, but not really numbers of people - you might change two people doing an ten hour shift to two people doing a seven and half hour shift if you chop a couple of hours or prep and half an hour of disposal. But you still need the same number of people. Elsewhere on the railway it makes no difference - no difference tho the number of signalmen, guards, station staff etc you need.

    The point I'm trying to make being that in both cash costs and manpower, a significant amount is not materially changed by the choice of traction.

    Tom
     
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  13. unslet

    unslet New Member

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    Another thing to consider. By the time the railways are back running,the coaches may well require heating. In most cases this dictates that a steam locomotive would be required.

    Regarding the families in bays of 4 idea. This could well work,although managing boring stuff like visits to the toilet need to be factored in.
     
  14. flying scotsman123

    flying scotsman123 Resident of Nat Pres

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    Exactly, this is where most proposals start to fall apart. If people could simply apparate into a seating bay or compartment, stay seated there have their train ride, then disapparate out again, it would be fairly manageable. But they can't, and there's always going to be too many surfaces that multiple people will be touching to be able to practically control things. And as I said earlier, yes these are problems that exist for other hings that are being allowed to take place, but they're usually things far more essential to living than steam trains and a jolly day out.
     
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  15. johnofwessex

    johnofwessex Resident of Nat Pres

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    A Harry Potter day?
     
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  16. Sidmouth

    Sidmouth Resident of Nat Pres Staff Member Moderator

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    I think preservation is coming to a point where some key decisions are going to have to be made . Cash reserves and goodwill will only carry you so long and whilst the risk averse thing is shut up shop for twelve months and hope it all goes away that may be too long for a number of lines . Plus factor in by that point competence may have been lost , furloughed staff find other employment and decline to return and you have a recipe for even bigger problems . Since the press is now convincing us that we face a depression greater than anything seen in 300 years , the charity of people will quickly turn off

    The opinion that is forming for me is Covid is not going away, our leaders have a policy of managed infection which means we could be in this for two, three, four years and so every business either lies down and gives up, or you find ways to operate , every reason not too operate is a challenge to find a way too operate .
     
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  17. martin1656

    martin1656 Nat Pres stalwart Friend

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    I think we may have to face some unpalable facts, that some railways won't servive this, the well run, with very good support organisations stand a better chance than some others , but if people don't have the spare cash, they won't come, no ammount of donation box rattling will change that. Railways that own everything, lock stock and barrel should be able to fare better than those where evrything is on a long term loan, or hire agreement, as cashflow will be the deciding factor, with no money, you cant even do the most basic of things , if the virus goes on for a long time, then no ones life will be the same,
     
  18. Steve

    Steve Resident of Nat Pres Friend

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    A ticking clock on the Middleton Railway is loco boiler certificates. Not the annual ones but the extended ones between overhaul. One loco reaches it at the end in July and another in December. In the master plan, both these locos would have replacements coming on stream to maintain the status fleet. However, work on the replacement locos has stopped so they are unlikely to be available when required in July & December. The locos coming out of traffic can't have extensions as they have already had these. It won't bring about a loco crisis but will reduce the working fleet from four to two until we can catch up.
    On the subject of catch up, this requires volunteer input. According to the ORR, up to last week, all 217 heritage railways had shut down and told volunteers to stay away. After this weeks changes, have any started to allow volunteer work, once more?
     
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  19. flying scotsman123

    flying scotsman123 Resident of Nat Pres

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    Mention has been made that the WSR has. The GWSR has expressly not, although thoughts are turning to it, initially just for safety critical activities and anything that's considered "business continuity" I suppose this means that if you were in the middle of something that you had to stop, but could really do with finishing off fairly soon, then do that.
     
  20. flying scotsman123

    flying scotsman123 Resident of Nat Pres

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    I couldn't think of any words more appropriate than those! :)
     

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